Thursday, April 12, 2012

A climate model after 30 years

Life has been busy here in Points-of-Inflection land for the last couple of weeks, and posting has been a little slow.  There is a bunch of things I want to write about, but until direct brain to blog connections are established, it'll take a few days to get them out there.

Meanwhile, I heard about this interesting article.  A couple of physicists went back to a paper published by James Hansen in 1981 about CO2 forcing and global temperatures.  This is well before "climate change" had become the political football that it is now.

Hansen's paper made some specific predictions about the trajectory of global temperatures out into the future, and there are now thirty years of measurements to check his prediction against.  (Actually, Hansen made several predictions depending on different scenarios of fossil fuel use, but he assumed that use patterns would only begin to diverge around 2009.)  So how well do his predictions match up to the observed reality?  Read the paper and find out!

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